This event took place online on 26 January 2021 in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. An international audience gathered with a panel of contributors based in the UK, Europe and Africa to hear a discussion about how to approach the environmental challenge faced by coastal cities as a result of rising sea levels. Climate Central estimate that 275 million people worldwide live in areas that will eventually be flooded at 3C of global warming.
Engineers need to see the big picture and need to follow a clear strategy in response to the options: mitigation, resilience, adaptation. In the context of a changing climate, these are terms that society at large are increasingly comfortable with and versed in. Albeit some slower than others. Retreat however is not. Arguably at odds with political ambitions or short term economic interests, retreat is largely seen as a last resort – a failure to adapt.
We have decided to publish the recording of the event almost in full. Many who wanted to attend were unable to and it also repays revisiting the rich discussion generated by a diverse panel.
The Conversation was chaired by Fergus Anderson, Happold Foundation Trustee.
Key points from the Conversation
- The option to move is an uncomfortable truth that we are not discussing with enough transparency and urgency. The legacy of forced resettlement and perception of retreat as a failure perhaps means we are nervous to do so.
- Retreat from our coastline is already happening and in the future it is inevitable that we will not be able to protect everywhere. We must empower citizens and governments to engage in a dialogue on this issue.
- Building the evidence base is vital to facilitating these conversations; how will the climate change, what and whom will be affected, and when? This is a complex science but the evidence base must be understood by decision makers and the public alike.
- This is not an issue that will emerge in the distant future. A network of City Mayors are turning their attention to issues of climate change, retreat and migration. Among these are some of the first affected cities globally who are delivering actions others can learn from.
- Planning for uncertainty is a challenge, there are however many emerging tools and methodologies such as adaptive pathways that can help us plot multiple possible futures and navigate decision making in the face of this uncertainty.
- What is the point of moving buildings and infrastructure if we take the heart out of communities? The three pillar strategy of Kiruna mining community in Sweden shows how a community’s identity can be understood and relocated with its people.
- Those areas we anticipate to be most affected are some of the most vulnerable and most rapidly urbanising. In many cases these communities have contributed least to the challenge they now face. Who pays is a thorny but critical issue. Who should pay is perhaps even more so.
- A certain amount of change associated with global warming is locked in. Our best adaptation option is mitigation yet society at large is not on track to deliver our carbon reduction targets. We need to get our act together to avoid more change being locked in and the most devastating and costly impacts of climate change being realised.
Panelists
Fergus Anderson, Happold Foundation Trustee
Fergus is an Associate in BuroHappold’s UK Sustainability and Physics team. He is motivated by the opportunity to explore the role of the built environment in tackling systemic challenges such as climate and ecological breakdown, widening inequality and declining urban health. Most recently, he led BuroHappold’s work with C40 Cities focused on quantifying the co-benefits of climate action, in turn supporting cities to make the case for bolder and more ambitious action on climate change. “I think it’s important to acknowledge that sea level rise is just one of the changes that we’re likely to see and alarmingly, the annual Ecological Threats Register forecast that by 2050, 1.2 billion people will be displaced as a result of issues such as water stress, food insecurity, droughts, floods, cyclones, rising temperatures and sea levels.”
Richard Dawson, School of Engineering at Newcastle University
Richard is Professor of Earth Systems Engineering in the School of Engineering at Newcastle University. Over the last two decades his research has focused on the analysis and management of climatic risks to infrastructure and the built environment. He is a member of the Climate Change Committee and an Author for the IPCC Cities and Infrastructure chapter.
“Another response is this idea of ‘advance’, not something we see too often as a kind of a strategy; but this [image] is a concept design for building something called the ‘great wall of Jakarta’ – both coastal protection to protect the lower parts of a sinking city, whilst also providing residential, commercial and other opportunities on a kind of a new offshore Island and break water.”
Luisa Miranda Morel, C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group
Luisa is a Senior Manager within the Inclusive Climate Action (ICA) Programme team at C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group. Her role involves leading the set-up and implementation of an ICA Forum, a platform for peer-to-peer learning between 20+ champion cities across 5 regions; sharing knowledge and best practices for overcoming critical socio-economic and environmental justice barriers to accelerate the delivery of ambitious inclusive climate action, a green and just recovery, a just transition and the pilot implementation of a city-led Global Green New Deal (GGND). To date, Luisa has overseen the delivery of the climate-migration partnership between C40 and the Mayors Migration Council (MMC). Prior to working at C40, Luisa worked on different humanitarian and development initiatives in Nepal, the Philippines and Colombia.
“We talk about people moving around within cities, across cities, moving across borders as well, because that adds a layer of complexity to the issue and the challenge of migration. And then also the capacities of not only the individual people who are moving, but also the cities, the government structures and the skills and understanding within governance, that is there to respond to these movements. So these are the different elements that make up the climate migration nexus.“
Dr. Barney Dickson, UN Environment Programme
Dr. Barney Dickson has been working on climate change issues for over twelve years and has been with UN Environment Programme (UNEP) for 6 years, where he is a Senior Programme Officer. His current focus is on the use of nature-based solutions to strengthen climate change adaptation. Barney recently ended an 18-month secondment to the Global Center on Adaptation where he was Co-Director of the Global Commission on Adaptation. Before joining UNEP, he was at the World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge. There he headed the Climate Change and Biodiversity Programme.
“I’ve worked on adaptation for roundabout 10 years. We discuss many issues: we discuss finance of adaptation; we discuss the role of the private sector; we discuss adaptation in agriculture, et cetera, et cetera. But we don’t discuss issues around movement. Relocating people – very little. Why is that? I think it’s an issue which a lot of people are rather nervous about…”
Viktoria Walldin, White Arkitekter
Viktoria Walldin is Partner at White Arkitekter and is a prominent social anthropologist of the built environment in Sweden. In 2014, Viktoria was awarded for her efforts with the prestigious Sweden Green Building Awards for positive contributions to sustainable urban development. Viktoria has specialized in environmental psychology and the social dimension of the regeneration of places. She has vast experience in working with ethnographic methods such as observations, interviewing and place analyses. Viktoria has been a key contributor on many major regeneration projects in Sweden and abroad. Projects at White Arkitekter include the relocation of the City of Kiruna in northern Sweden and the design of a development plan for an industrial estate in Nairobi, Kenya. She has also served as an advisor to the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment, contributing expertise on social aspects of urban development. Additionally, Viktoria has also had an advisory role in Sweden’s Ministry of Enterprise and Innovation, the government organization for municipal planning for housing.
“So now after understanding Kiruna we created three key strategies to help us develop the city. The first one is leave no one behind. And it addressed that the new city should be for all people and connect all current residents during the whole relocation process: rather than implementing a new satellite city that could divide the city.”
With thanks to all who took part.